Trans Scan: a global scan of emerging trends in mobility and the built environment

Pressure is on for a big switch to electric vehicles

IN combination, climate change and the worldwide recession seem to have become a powerful force to reshape the way people travel. Not only are the twin events causing unprecedented upheaval among vehicle manufacturers but they are also prompting a furious technological race to produce the type of green, clean cars that will be popular and secure a viable future for their proponents.

Many of the concept vehicles that have made an appearance in the past few weeks clearly show a preparedness to think-outside-the-box.

“If we want to maintain our individual mobility in the future we have to rethink the car in its entirety, without taboos,” says Carl Bucherer, one of the backers of the shape-changing “iChange” concept car featured on the front page of the latest TransScan.

A similar attitude is shared by those behind the PUMA, pictured above. In fact in the case of the little two-wheeler, the proponents are suggesting it become a primary mode of city travel. Over the longer term and with the help of navigational aids and links to the Internet, the proponents even see PUMA-type vehicles ultimately being built to “drive themselves”.

“Imagine small, nimble electric vehicles that know where other moving objects are and avoid running into them," says General Motors’ research executive, Larry Burns.

"Now, connect those vehicles in an Internet-like web and you can greatly enhance the ability of people to move through cities, find places to park and connect to their social and business networks.”

Both iChange and the PUMA are electrically driven and most of the new vehicles previewed in recent weeks have been either hybrids or stand-alone electrics. April’s 2009 New York International Automobile Show saw manufacturers feature no less than ten new hybrids and electrics. All made their debut just days after President Obama announced special tax incentives to encourage one million “plug-in hybrids” onto American roads by 2015.

With Europe and Asia both showing a swing to electrics (See below: “China aims high”) does this mean one of the larger sources of climate warming CO2 is about to come under control? Probably not - or at least not without major government interventions. The UK Energy Research Centre has just published a report on the issues involved and concluded that much more is needed than just the promotion of electric cars.

The problem is that electric cars still need energy and unless that can be generated cleanly, then the overall reduction in CO2 emissions that electric cars promise will be much reduced. As the energy centre’s research director, Dr Jillian Anable put it: “Without managing travel patterns themselves, it is very difficult to meet the technological challenges, including how the electricity is generated, at the scale and pace required.

“Without effective policies to manage demand for travel, emission cuts through vehicle technology will be made much more difficult and may come too late.”

The report’s solution is move services closer to people and so reduce people’s dependence on cars. Another way to ease the way is to make sure the electric cars do not draw their power from “conventional” power stations and that means changing the electricity grid. (See below: “Wind options”)

The scan also showed:

Wind options

Denmark is not only hosting December’s crucial international summit on climate change - the so-called 15th Conference of Parties or COP15. It is also managing the Edison Project - an international project designed to develop the infrastructure that will ensure electric cars are supplied with “green” energy. The project seeks to integrate wind power into the electricity supply system and ensure that electric cars draw down their loads when wind energy is high and power consumption across the grid is low. The three-year project, which started in February, is being part funded by the Danish Government and part by commercial participants like IBM and Siemens. Presently Denmark produces about 20% of its electricity from wind. The government intends to increase wind’s share to 50% by 2025.

China aims high

While many of the world’s major car companies battle to secure their futures, China has set itself a three-year target to become a significant international manufacturer of hybrid and all-electric vehicles. Last years its fledgling electric car industry produced some 2100 vehicles, including electric buses. By 2011, the Chinese Government now wants to see production top 500,000 - just under half the combined hybrid and electric target being set by Japan and South Korea, and more than double the manufacturing figures planned by North America car makers. Meanwhile cities like Beijing, Shanghai and Tianjin are preparing for a major rollout of electric car re-charging stations.

Petrol’s legacy

If there is a big switch to electric cars, it will take a long time before the new vehicles make a dent in the legacy of high-polluting petrol-driven cars. The WorldWatch Institute now puts the world’s fleet of passenger vehicles at 622 million - up from 500 million in 2000. With trucks included, road transport is now responsible for about a quarter of the globe’s energy use and has the fastest-rising levels of carbon emissions of any economic sector.

More power points

London is stepping up its efforts to encourage more people to drive electric cars. The Mayor, Boris Johnson, has announced that planning laws will be changed to require that all new property developments install re-charging points and that 20% of new parking spaces include a re-charger. The city is now aiming to have 25,000 re-charging points in workplaces, retail outlets, streets and car parks by 2015.

Low-cost cars

Whatever the future for India’s $3200 Tata Nano, it has grabbed all the headlines as the world’s first low-cost car. But it is unlikely to have the market to itself for very long. France’s Renault and Japan’s Nissan have partnered with India’s scooter maker, Bajaj Auto, to have their own low-cost car on the market by 2011. According to the WorldWatch Institute, many have decried the Nano's arrival as an “eco-disaster” that will open the way to “hundreds of millions of potential new drivers”. But it says the Nano will also replace many dangerous scooters that now dominate India’s roads and cause serious emission problems. “Rather than criticise Indian consumers for pursuing more secure modes of transportation, we should focus on developing public transportation systems that are safe, reliable, and sustainable in both industrial and developing countries alike,” says WorldWatch researcher Michael Renner.