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Is an 'inland retreat' on the horizon?
WHAT chance is there that climate change will prompt people to move inland and away from the coast?
Most countries with active climate change assessment reviews accept that some property will be lost. In fact the residents of one tiny Welsh fishing village have just been told their homes could eventually be swept away.
In the US, Californians have even started to debate a possible “inland retreat” (see below) and there are now signs in Australia that the issue of a vulnerable coastline has started to take a higher priority. The Federal Government’s December White Paper on its the carbon pollution reduction scheme put coastal property at the top of the climatic list of potential economic and social losses. Yet will rising sea levels, storm damage and tidal surges so undermine the viability of coastal communities that Australia will witnesses a sea change reversal and a population drift inland?
Right now there is no indication that Australians are ever likely to give up their cherished views over water. In fact as far as the sea is concerned, Dr Peter Cowell of Sydney University’s Institute of Marine Science is convinced Australians have been lulled into a false sense of security about climate change.
“The emerging impact of sea level rises now is being hidden in the ‘noise’ of other factors affecting changes to our coastline,” he said in a university media statement.
“Storm erosion and naturally occurring sand movement are disguising the true impact of sea level rises. There is also the disruption to sand by building of engineering works.”
Dr Cowell believes it could take to the end of the century before the impact of sea level rises on coastal erosion matches that of other causes - by which time he thinks the impact will be “catastrophic”. He says then Australia will have to deal with sea level rises in terms of “disaster management rather than prevention.”
“The trouble is that until the impacts of sea level rise are more obvious, more Australians keep moving closer to the coast and constructing new property, increasing the national vulnerability further down the track,” he said. Dr Cowell says he would like to see the country thinking ahead in the same way as Holland. There the Dutch are already working on raising the country’s coast by five metres by 2100 - rather than waiting fifty years by which time the expense will be prohibitive.
“We can’t allow sea level rise to drop off the agenda of our climate change response,” Dr Cowell said.
But in the meantime, while Australians show no signs of moving from the coast, another community with a fondness for ocean views - Californians - is beginning to reassess the situation.
The debate has been prompted by the publication of a research paper that calculates some $US 2.5 trillion-worth of California’s real estate assets* - most of them close to the sea or water’s edge - are now at risk of adverse events induced by global warming. Such events include more severe and frequent wildfires; sea level rises; more frequent and severe Pacific storms; and inundation through coastal flooding.
According to the report, coastal homes face the greatest risk and between now and 2100 the annual cost of damage could fluctuate between $US 300 million and $US 3.9 billion - if preventative measures are not taken. In any case the report says there is also the risk that the climate exposure will cause coastal property prices to fall - and financially, that could be just as damaging.
Whether or not the risk will cause people to retreat inland is another matter. A deciding factor could be insurance premiums. The report says the case has already been put to allow free rein to the insurance market so as to discourage high-risk behaviour and reduce potential damage.
But the report states the more likely scenario is federal intervention. “The federal government’s role as ‘insurer of last resort’ has historically created huge distortions in insurance markets by effectively depressing insurance premiums in high-risk areas and thereby encouraging people to live there,” the report says.
If people stay living by the coast, then more will have to be paid for coastal protection. Costs will depend on how high the sea rises. The report suggests in California’s case, annual costs could range from $US 303 million for a 0.7 metre increase in sea levels to $US 1.04 billion for a 1 metre rise.
Meanwhile California’s Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger, has issued an executive order commissioning the US National Academy of Sciences to identify specific parts of the coastline under threat. (4) At the same time State agencies are to take all known threats into account when planning new infrastructure. Government sponsored public awareness campaigns will start in late March. The academy is expected to deliver its final report in December 2010.
