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Highlights
Budgeting for a warmer future
The pace at which Australia starts adapting to climate change will increase substantially over the next 12 months. All state governments are now reallocating staff to help manage the predicted impacts and the change of federal government, appointment of Senator Penny Wong as the country’s first Minister for Climate Change and Water, and Australia’s signature on the Kyoto Protocol will all create new momentum.
The latest report of the Australian Research Council now lists climate change as a key driver shaping the country’s future. It also highlights predictions in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of a 28cm to 58cm rise in sea levels this century as one of the more worrying implications for Australia. As the research council says:
“It is rather self evident that if the predictions (of rising sea levels) are valid then the fact that around 90% of Australia’s population is concentrated in close proximity to the coast where large areas have been experiencing reduced rainfall, then the potential risk factors associated with climate change are of great significance and need to be systematically addressed through careful and considered policy responses at all levels of government and by business as well.” *
Whatever the impact on the landscape, climate change is certainly beginning to reshape government budgets. Whether its $24 million in special rebates to persuade more South Australians to save water (1), or Britain’s sales tax cut for companies that manufacture more energy efficient products, the climate factor is fast entering government accounts.
In public works too the first tentative moves towards adaptation have begun. Over the period of this latest scan, Queensland announced construction of Australia’s first thermal power station (see below) and Western Australia raised to more than $5 million its program to have about half the State’s public schools linked to solar power for at least part of their energy needs by 2010.
Britain is pouring millions of dollars more into flood protection and in both the US and Europe there is talk of making climate change a factor in all new planning approvals. As one Euro-MP, Chris Davies put it: “It is not acceptable for a new hospital to be built in a flood plain, when moving it 100 metres up would extend its life by tens of years.”
So far Britain seems to have gone furthest on greenhouse gas emission targets. A new Bill before Parliament seeks to enforce emission cuts of 60% on 1990 levels by 2050 and 26–32% cuts by 2020. At the same time a newly establish government advisory body, the independent Committee on Climate Change, has been asked by Prime Minister Gordon Brown whether more stringent reductions are needed to “prevent dangerous temperature rises.”
In the US, California under Governor Schwarzenegger, is still leading the country with his efforts to curb emissions. (6) The State has already set a target to cut emissions by 25% by 2020 and in October the State Legislature allocated $US125 million a year towards the development of alternative transport fuels and vehicles and $US80 million annually to improve air quality. In Japan the government has served notice that not just larger companies but medium and small ones too will soon have to report how much CO2 they are creating and what plans they have to reduce it. There is also to be a requirement on Japanese manufacturers to label all goods with the amount of CO2 involved in their manufacture, and in the case of electrical appliances, how much more CO2 will be emitted during their use. (See too “IT’s CO2” below.)
Still in Asia, Malaysia has announced new planning directives requiring homes being built in low-lying areas to be erected on stilts and for local councils to plant more shade trees.
The scan also showed:
Solar town
Cloncurry—reputedly one of the hottest towns in Australia—is to be the site of the country’s first solar thermal power station. The Queensland Government plans to spend $7 million constructing the station which is expected to generate 10-megawatts of power—enough to meet all the electricity needs of the town’s 4500 residents.
Switching to renewables
In the hope of encouraging businesses and other organisations to make more use of renewable energy, the WA Government announced its renewable energy purchases next year would rise from 5% to 10%. There level will then rise to 20% by 2009–10. The government has also set a target for 15% of WA’s mains electricity being drawn from renewable sources by 2020 rising to 20% by 2025.
Coastal retreat
While many governments recognise the need for climate adaptation, there is also an emerging recognition that there may be some aspects of change that will require retreat. Britain for example is now acknowledging publicly that there is a bottom line on how much can be spent stopping rising sea levels. The government’s Environment Agency has just issued a five-page information document to landowners and anyone living adjacent to the sea telling them that the agency is to “stop maintaining some sea defences”. Its says that if rising seas threaten to engulf some sections of the coast, then if there is no good economic or environmental reason for protecting it, that section will be sacrificed. The “environmental” reasons for protecting coastline will also be highly restrictive. Sea defences will only be maintained to protect “internationally designated environmental features from the damaging effects of flooding”, it says.
War posture
The extent of Britain’s coastal problems (see above) was spelt out recently by the Environment Agency’s chief executive, Lady Barbara Young. She estimates coastal erosion threatens $280 billion-worth of coastal property with poor and elderly communities the most vulnerable. “This is like World War Three—this is the biggest challenge to face the globe for many, many years,” Lady Young says. “We need the sorts of concerted, fast, integrated and above all huge efforts that went into many actions in times of war.”
Drainage problems
Since the July floods which devastated much of Western England, the government has added hundreds of millions of dollars to its annual flood protection program. But initial investigations by the Environment Agency have found that it was not just rivers that caused the problems. “Many people were flooded by rivers, but five times as many homes and businesses in places like Hull were flooded by overflowing drains and sewers,” said agency chairman, Sir John Harman. “These areas were overwhelmed by the sheer amount of rainfall.”
IT’s CO2
Japan’s Ministry of the Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has been doing some number-crunching on IT equipment and found it a major cause of CO2 emissions which will only get worse with the advent of broadband. According to METI, IT equipment operating in Japan during 2006 consumed 50 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity and produced 26 million tonnes of carbon dioxide—the same CO2 levels you would expect from eight million cars. Even if energy-saving technologies continue to advance at the current pace, Japanese IT will be consuming five-times the amount of electricity by 2025, says METI. Although many IT companies are working to cut energy demand, the Ministry wants to see the efforts go much further. To help, it has government approval to invest about $48 million into IT energy-saving R&D.
A matter of timing
Perhaps a solution to the IT problem (see above) is “dynamic demand” technology. It is a concept that has been receiving considerable attention in Britain where advocates say it will enable much more renewable energy to be used than is judged appropriate today. The idea is to have the next generation of refrigerators; freezers and other appliances use electricity at times when demand for power is low. Each appliance would be fitted to a micro-controller that would switch them on and of—or alter the amount of power used according to conditions on the electricity grid. According to the London Press Service, there is even talk of turning future fridges and freezers into in-home energy storage batteries that could collect power from wind and solar sources and power-up other domestic appliances.
Barrage options
Although many environmentalists are opposed to the idea, Britain is looking to tap tidal power with a 16.1km barrage across the River Severn estuary that will generate up to 4.4% of the country’s electricity needs. The proposal will not be cheap—$33 billion on latest estimates. But the idea has just won qualified support from the Government’s Sustainable Development Commission, provided that the project meets strict environmental conditions and stays in public ownership. The commission’s report takes a broad view of tidal power estimating that at least 10% of the country’s electricity needs could be met from tidal technologies.
Waterlogged
The continuing scientific debate on climate change is also narrowing down in specifics. For example, could higher levels of CO2 in the atmosphere alter predictions for future flood risks? Dr Richard Betts of Britain’s Metrological Office believes it will. In an article in the science journal, Nature, he argues that climate change may actually increase the risk of flooding because the extra CO2 will reduce the ability of plants to release water back into the atmosphere. Although that suggests the severity of droughts may actually fall, it also means the ground could become more saturated. The debate continues.
