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Designing WA’s road network for 2025
Once it was standard practice for road planners to design new networks with an eye to community needs 50 years ahead. Today social, technological and increasingly environmental change is so rapid that it is impossible to predict what life may be like in 10 year’s time—let alone in five decades.
Nevertheless new road networks remain an expensive infrastructure that are built to last generations. With this in mind, Main Roads WA asked Professor Phil Charles of Queensland University’s Centre for Transport Strategy to investigate what transport will be like in 20 years time and how road network operators might respond.
Prof. Charles has just completed his study: “Getting there from here: road network operations in Western Australia in 2025.” Here Trans Scan reports on some of his findings.
While Professor Charles says it is impossible to predict just what WA’s road network will look like in twenty year’s time, he has no trouble identifying the pressures that are likely to be placed on it.
For example the State’s aging population will mean increasing numbers of motorists of 65 and over will be using the roads—and most of them will have deteriorating driving abilities.
For the network operator, the implications are huge and Prof. Charles suggests there will need to be new emphasis on making roads safer for the aged. The new pressures on network operators will not stop there. His report identifies six major areas of change that are likely to shape the road network of 2025:
- Demographics;
- Road safety;
- Traffic congestion;
- Goods transport;
- Sustainability and environmental impact; and
- Transport security and emergency response.
But as the report shows, the driving forces indicated by each of the six headings may not necessarily be heading in the same direction. Take for example “demographics” and “sustainability”. Demographically as WA’s population expands and the economy increases so people’s desire to travel (both for business and pleasure) is likely to increase. But as recent trends in sustainability have shown, a dramatic rise in oil prices can quickly change travel patterns. If fuel prices get too high, many people cut back on using their cars—and in some cases, hop on a bus.
“Alternative energy sources are becoming available along with cleaner, more efficient engines,” writes Prof. Charles. “Alternative fuels (such as CNG, LPG, methanol, ethanol,) alternative energy sources (electric, fuel cell) or combinations such as hybrid engines, have the potential to reduce the dependence on oil and be less affected by oil price hikes.
“However, the timing of the availability of alternative fuel technology and the affordability of changing the current vehicle fleet is a major issue, with major changes not expected for a decade or more.”
Traffic congestion too can radically change travel patterns and Prof. Charles points to recent French research that suggests if congestion delays rise too much, workers start to look for employment closer to home. And in WA’s current tight employment market, that too can have profound implications.
Writes Prof. Charles: “Researchers in France estimate that increasing congestion effectively decreases the radius people are willing to travel to work. A 10% decrease of travel speed due to congestion, results in a 15–18% decrease in labour market size, which in turn results in a 2.7–3.2% reduction in regional economic output.”
But beyond the six identifiable drivers for change, what really makes the future so hard to predict is the wildcards, says Prof. Charles. He quotes the World Futures Society saying that while once human history was overwhelmingly characterised by “80% continuities, 15% cycles and only 5% novelties” today the figures are completely reversed. Today 80% of history is becoming “novel.” New technologies—like “smart cars”, advanced vehicle control systems and “intelligent infrastructure” are all likely to play their part in reshaping the road networks of 2025. Even the infrastructure itself could turn out to be “novel” from today’s perspective—like automated highway systems, vehicle-to-vehicle communications and an increase in the use of tunnels to overcome public pressure against building more surface roads.
For road planners Prof. Charles suggests the best way to prepare for the wildcards is to make sure unpredictable trends are being monitored and that greater flexibility has been built into the planning process. He also suggest the need to prepare for institutional change.
“Operating the road network safely and efficiently on a 24/7 basis is growing in importance,” Prof. Charles writes. “Work is needed on methods of long-term operations investment appraisal, innovative finance, risk assessment, value management and whole life costing. Multi-agency institutional arrangements can provide more efficient use of resources across jurisdictional boundaries.
“This can include multiple agencies (e.g. transport, police, emergency services) using a single management centre or a separate agency funded jointly by the operating agencies, partnering arrangements will be required, recognising the different objectives, capabilities and requirements.”
