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How vulnerable are beach communities?
Although Australia is now paying more attention to the effects of climate change—particularly its impact on drought and bush fires—a series of research reports and commentaries suggest just as much attention is needed to what is happening to the oceans. Rising sea levels and the likelihood of more powerful cyclones will pose a greater threat to coastal communities.
If Federal and State governments agree, this year should see work begin on pinpointing those areas of the coast that are most vulnerable. In fact it was February last year that the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) announced its plan for collaborative action on climate change and a national assessment of coastal vulnerability was a key priority.
In more recent times a series of papers—including the Federal Government’s independently prepared “State of the Environment” report and CSIRO assessments—have highlighted coastal problems.
According to one of the country’s leading researcher on rising sea-levels, CSIRO oceanographer Dr John Church, half Australia’s population lives within seven kilometres of the coast and 30%—or about six million people—are within two kilometres of a beach.
“Juxtaposed with this rush to the coast is a changing climate,” says Dr Church.
“Over the last century, about 70 per cent of the world’s sandy shorelines were retreating, between 20–30 per cent were stable, and fewer than 10 per cent were advancing. As sea-levels rise, coastal erosion is expected to continue, resulting in the landward movement of the coastline typically at rates of tens to hundreds of times the rate of sea-level rise.
“No single coastal flooding event can be blamed on climate change and associated sea-level rise. However, increasing sea levels, potentially reinforced by increases in the number of intense tropical cyclones, as suggested in some recent analyses, means that the risk of major flooding events and loss of life in the future will increase.”
(The rush to the coast is also well set to continue with the Australian Bureau of Statistics predicting that places like the Augusta-Margaret River area will see its population grow 64% (to 16,513 people) by 2022. At the same time many of them are likely to be retiring baby-boomers.)
According to figures published in the State of the Environment report, the last 25 years have seen sea levels around the Australian coast rise by an average of 0.9mm a year—consistent with the global increase over the same period of 0—2mm/yr. But there are regional differences, including places like where there have been sizeable drops. For example Melville Bay in the Northern Territory where levels have fallen by an average of -2.43mm/yr. Western Australia has areas where there have been sizeable increases including 2.06mm/yr at Wyndham, 2.23mm/yr at Broome, 1.68mm/yr at Carnarvon, 1.47mm/yr at Fremantle, and 1.03mm/yr at Bunbury.
Although the State of the Environment report said there was still debate about the scientific predictions of climate change, it nonetheless acknowledged that adaptations would be necessary “for conditions outside of people’s experience”.
Dr Church went further and suggested a series of strategies and investments to “reduce the potential for economic loss and human tragedy”. They are:
- Ensure escape and emergency routes are available for future flooding events.
- Increase the resilience of coastal developments and communities.
- Develop setbacks for regions susceptible to flooding and erosion.
- Increase beach renourishment.
- Include protection measures such as sea walls for some coastal locations and retreat or abandon others.
At the individual level CSIRO’s Dr John Church suggests: “In Australia, including the potential impacts of climate change in our dreams of owning our own coastal gateway will be one way to lessen future impacts.”
The scan also showed:
Sea-changers changing
A population analysis of the “suburbanisation” of Australia’s coast shows that it is not capital city “sea changers” who are driving the trend, but people moving in from non-coastal regional centres and the bush who are primarily responsible. According to CSIRO researchers, Timothy Smith and Michael Doherty, 42% of new coastal residents are from regional centres and 27% come from country areas. But do not expect the trend to continue, they say. The two researchers found that 44% of recent retirees were now moving from capital cities to the coast. Smith and Doherty believe this to be the sign of the future and when more baby-boomers hit retirement age they will be heading for the sea too.
Billion dollar flood bill
By 2080 flood damage caused by climate change could be costing Britain more than $37 billion a year, according to UK Government research. With the current flood bill at a “mere” $660 million annually, the predictions have sparked an urgent series of research studies to determine how individual urban areas can be replanned to reduce the threat. “Adapting to the impacts of climate change is vital if we are to manage the risks of flooding and coastal erosion,” says the UK Minister for Climate Change and Environment, Ian Pearson. Climate research has suggested that over the next 70 years Britain can expect a major change in rainfall patterns bringing heavier and more regular down pours that will severely test existing drainage systems. Added to that, higher density living has meant that many gardens have been paved or built over further restricting the ability for water to drain away. Over the next 12 months 15 pilot studies will be conducted to identify specific local problems and sort out jurisdictional responsibilities for flooding. Currently responsibility for urban flooding stretches across water companies, the Environment Agency, local authorities and the Highways Agency.
International ‘dead zones’
According to the United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) in the last three years the number of oceanic “dead zones” around the globe has increased from 150 to 200. The main cause is untreated sewage and plastic debris—primarily from fast growing coastal communities in developing countries.
Australian ‘dead zones’?
Although most Australians are unaware of it, there is a faint halo of sediments, organic matter and nutrients surrounding the Australian coast. According to Dr Rob Fearon of the Queensland-based Coastal Cooperative Research Centre some of the halo is caused naturally—but increasing amounts come from human activity on land. Dr Rob believes that although river and tidal action has so far prevented “dead zones” developing, the halo will still require more attention from coastal managers to keep sections of it turning into a lifeless expanse. In any case he is predicting that the halo and coastal pollution will become an issue before Australia publishes its next “State of the Environment” report in five years time.
Judging disaster response
US Government agencies are still being criticised for their failures in responding to the 2005 Hurricane Katrina disaster but have the lessons been learnt? A research team from the Rensselaer Poly-technic Institute is hoping to find out by developing a “diagnostic tool” to determine if government agencies have the “right stuff” to handle emergencies. By following a paper trail of government emails, reviews and assessments, the researchers say they have been able to determine how each agency reacted when Katrina struck. They say what has been most evident is the “vast dichotomy of cultures” that existed between two of the main agencies involved: the US Coast Guard and the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). “FEMA’s fatalist culture, coupled with the loss of its cabinet-level position and budget and rule-making authority, crippled the agency’s ability to fulfil its normal repertoire of emergency co-ordination and response during Katrina,” say Rensselaer’s Professor William Wallace. “On the other hand, the Coast Guard had undergone minimal organisational change and had its pre-existing routines supported, thus it was better equipped to fulfil its duties during the disaster. Additionally, because of the Coast Guard’s hierarchical culture, action orders continually disseminated through the organisation’s chain of command to the response team.” Rensselaer is hoping that when ready its computerised “diagnostic tool” will be able to identify vulnerabilities in any local, state, or federal government agency.
Pilgrimage sites
As Australia’s land prices soar, coastal caravan parks attract increasing attention from developers wanting them to make way for expensive waterfront housing. But a Griffith University researcher has discovered that there is much more to moving caravan parks than cashing in on land values. According to Dr Kathy Marles, Australian families develop “deep attachments” to specific sites and the same families will keep returning to the same spot for generations. “It is somewhat akin to a pilgrimage to a sacred site,” she says.
