Trans Scan: a global scan of emerging trends in mobility and the built environment

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The search is on for a technological response to climate change

Besides Hurricane Katrina there seems no let up in the litany of warning signs of climate change. In fact the evidence now suggests that change can be expected to accelerate more than previously forecast.

Before Katrina hit, Australia joined the United States, China, India, Japan, and South Korea, in an agreement to work together to develop cleaner technologies.

But around the world the announcement brought mixed reactions and the comment from Lord May, President of the Royal Society, Britain's top scientific institution, that while the move was encouraging a "Herculean effort" was still needed to cut the amount of greenhouse gas now being pumped into the atmosphere.

"So, while this encouraging new deal may play a role in this, it will only be part, and not all, of the solution," he said. "But we have serious concerns that the apparent lack of targets in this deal means that there is no sense of what it is ultimately trying to achieve or the urgency of taking action to combat climate change."

Before Katrina came news that Siberia's 11,000-year-old frozen peat bogs have started to melt. The journal "Nature" also reported that uncertainty about past and present Earth cooling events now make it impossible to be certain of the strength of future warming. Researchers from Siberia's Tomsk State University and Britain's Oxford University calculated that as the million square kilometres of peat bogs melt they would release billions of tonnes of methane into the atmosphere. And they say as a greenhouse gas, methane is 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide. (By way of comparison, the US-based Worldwatch Institute estimates that about seven billion tonnes of CO2 is released annually by burning fossil fuels.)

Adding to the problem, Nature has reported that worldwide action to improve air quality may actually amplify climate change by reducing the cooling effect provided by airborne particle pollution (aerosols). The discovery comes from an international team including Dr. Chris Jones from the UK's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. He likens the situation to driving a car while pressing both the accelerator and the brake, "Now we are taking our foot off the brake, but we don't know how fast we will go," says Dr Jones. "Because we don't know exactly how strong the aerosol cooling has been, we do not know how strong the greenhouse warming will be". Fellow researcher, Professor Meinrat Andreae of Germany's Max Planck Institute for Chemistry believes that as clean air legislation clears the aerosols from the atmosphere temperatures could rise another 5° or 6° C.

"The policy implications of such an increase - comparable to the temperature rise from the previous Ice Age to the present - are enormous," he says.

Shortly afterwards the journal of the American Geophysical Union, Eos, published details of new research showing that within a century summertime seas around the Arctic will be "ice-free" - ensuring higher sea levels in every part of the world.

In a review of climate change published by the World-watch Institute, researcher Janet Sawin says the impacts of rising CO2 concentrations and temperatures are already visible worldwide and are arriving faster than some climate experts feared.

"The World Health Organisation estimates that at least 160,000 people die annually due to climate change, and there is growing evidence of direct links to observed ecological changes," she says.

The scan also showed:
WA-based early warning

International agreement has been reached to adopt Perth as the headquarters for the tsunami early warning system for countries boarding the Indian Ocean. The agreement, by member nations of the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, will aim at providing a 30 minute warning of a "tsunamigenic event" - an undersea earthquake that causes destructive waves. The decision is in direct response to last December's disaster that killed more than 200,000 people and left a damage bill of several billion dollars.

City response

Although the US is still strongly opposed to signing the Kyoto Protocol, a UK-based consultancy, the Climate Group, has found 17 American cities have had no trouble cutting their local CO2 emission below 1990 levels - as required by the treaty. Just as significantly, the consultants have found that in the process the cities have also saved themselves $US 600 millions through "efficiency measures". "You must understand that tackling climate is financially a competitive advantage, not a liability," says company CEO, Steve Howard. The 17 cities are among 145 whose mayors have formed a coalition to fight global warming by making urban living more "eco-friendly".

Court action

Could the law change government attitudes to global warming? A US federal judge has just given four American cities together with Greenpeace and Friends of the Earth the right to sue two US federal government agencies over allegations that their choice of overseas investments is contributing to climate change. The ruling is said to be the first in America to recognise that climate change causes sufficient injury for a plaintiff to be allowed to seek court redress. The city authorities which are party to the action are Boulder, Santa Monica, Oakland and Arcata. The defendants are the Overseas Private Investment Corp and the Export-Import Bank.

Strategic questions

Europeans are being asked what they think about the state of Europe's cities and what should be done to make improvements. The poll has been launched by the European Commission in advance of the release of its own strategy for tackling urban environmental problems. No issues are being left untouched. A media statement inviting people to post their suggestions online said cities too had to be viewed as a contributing factor to environmental troubles like climate change. "The main environmental problems of the cities are poor air quality, high level traffic and congestion, high levels of ambient noise, neglect of the built environment, greenhouse gas emissions, urban sprawl, generation of large volumes of waste and generation of waste water," it said. How the commission intends to clear it all up will be known in December when it releases its "Thematic Strategy".

Keeping tabs

Would homeowners consume less electricity, water and gas if they knew precisely how much it was costing them in real time? Students at Michigan University are sure they would and have devised a computer-based system that will alert individuals when their consumption levels are likely to exceed whatever sum of money they are setting aside for their monthly utility bills. There are some basic requirements. For the monitoring system to work the homeowner needs an online computer and the utilities have to provide digital meters. Special software has to be installed in the computer to take information about the homeowner's. A wireless network then monitors the meters and the homeowner is sent an email when consumption is running above the predetermined limit. It is early days but the developers believe such monitoring could reduce overall household consumption by 10%. They are now looking at ways the monitoring system could be extended to the car.

TV horror

One job the new home-energy monitor could do (see above: "Keeping tabs") is check power consumption of the new big screen digital televisions. According to one US commentator, the new TVs will do for electricity consumption what SUVs have done for petrol guzzling. The US Environmental Protection Agency says that unless manufacturers adopt more efficient technologies for their new televisions, electricity consumption will soar. It estimates that by 2009, when half of all new TVs sold in America are expected to be of the big screen variety, TV energy use will reach 70 billion kilowatt-hours per year. That is 50% more than now and will add $US 1 billion to US energy bills. It will also pump an extra 7 million tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

 
 

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