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Study says bio-energy economy feasible - and profitable
A major study, part funded by the Pentagon, has found that the United States could end its reliance on oil by 2050 - if it immediately mobilised technology, adopted smart business practices and launched a new fuel industry based on bio-energy.
The study finds that such a strategy would not require federal regulation but would be market-based, and innovation-driven. It would also have the effect of wiping billions of dollars from the country's annual deficit.
The Pentagon, which is the world's single largest buyer of oil, would become a major driver in the strategy by promoting the development of "super fuel-efficient" land, sea, and air craft.
The study, "Winning the Oil Endgame: Innovation for Profit, Jobs and Security" is the work of the independent research organisation, the Rocky Mountain Institute.
"Unlike previous proposals to force oil savings through government policy, our proposed transition beyond oil is led by business for profit," says the institute's CEO, Amory Lovins.
The study shows that by adopting the strategy by 2015 the US could save more oil than it currently buys from the Middle East.
By 2025 it would be using less oil than it did in 1970 and by 2040 it would not need to import oil at all and by 2050 little oil would be used.
"Because saving and substituting oil costs less than buying it, our study finds a net savings of $70 billion a year," Mr Lovins said. "That acts like a giant tax cut. It simply makes sense and makes money for all."
The study says that if current trends were followed, half US oil imports in 2025 would be to fuel cars and light trucks (SUVs, pickups, and vans). But it claims that half that fuel demand could be wiped out - if the vehicles were made using ultra-light, ultra-strong materials like carbon-fibre.
That would halve the vehicles' weight, increase safety, and boost fuel efficiency to "about 85 mpg for a mid-size car or 66 mpg for a mid-size SUV".
"BMW has confirmed that carbon-fibre autobodies weigh only half as much as steel and have exceptional crash performance," Mr Lovins said. "The resulting fuel savings can be like buying gasoline for 56 cents a gallon."
The study says that by 2015, more efficient vehicles, buildings and factories would turn oil companies into broad-based energy companies that embrace biofuels as a new product line.
It also suggests that the new biofuels be produced wood-based rather than from starchy or sugary plants.
It says such an industry would be able to replace one-fifth of current oil used in the US, more than triple farm income, and create 750,000 agriculture jobs.
